- cross-posted to:
- europe
- cross-posted to:
- europe
After being demilitarized in 2005, Sweden re-introduced permanent troops to Gotland in 2016, following Russia’s annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula in 2014. Sweden also became NATO’s newest member in March — meaning it is covered by the alliance’s Article 5 guarantee that all other members come to each other’s defense if they are attacked.
How the fuck is Putin supposed to take Gotland? Is the Russian Baltic fleet supposed to sail out of Saint Petersburg, pass within 50km of either Talinn or Helsinki without getting every single anti-ship missile in NATO launched at them and land every soldier they can cram into it’s (on paper quite decent landing craft) and conquer one cement factory that I promise will never work again, and some wild horses and rose bushes?
Russia can barely supply it’s troops by train against a nation without a real Airforce. How are they supposed to hold an island against inside lake NATO against a country with 2 fighter wings in easy bombing distance, and at least something of a navy?
On the other hand, the fact that they’re doomed to fail doesn’t mean they won’t try, so I can’t fault Sweden for getting some troops out there. There are probably worse posts than Gotland too.
What he is saying is that Gotland is extremely strategically important to Russia(and Sweden/NATO). It is also an island with 50k population, basically deserted, which can be used as an excuse(would countries be willing to go to WW3 over such an island?). An island that Sweden demilitarised in the past.
If Russia wants to fuck with the Baltic States(high probability, especially if things go well for them in Ukraine), Gotland will be part of that plan. Russia wants to deploy anti-air missile systems there that would enable them to air blockade the Baltic States.
This messaging is essential in order to signal to the world that a threat exists so if shit goes down, the world(NATO allies) will be mentally prepared to be involved.
It is “very easy” for Russia(or many countries who dont care about diplomatic fallout) to create a fait accompli and conquer small stuff. And then it is up to the morale of your country and your allies, to see if they have the will to fight back, like Ukraine did for example.
You may be forgetting that Kaliningrad is another Russian harbor in close proximity. Don’t know if there’s any credence to assertion that Gotland is in danger, but just saying.
The japanese generals were from the very beginning sure Pearl Harbour was hopeless, but they had few to lose and very much to gain considering the world was against them.
Die conquering of starve to death.