For years, the internet has been shrinking. Not in size, not in data, but in ownership. A vast, decentralized network of personal blogs, forums, and independent communities has been corralled into a handful of paved prison yards controlled by a few massive corporations. Every post, every “friend,” every creative work—
You and I know this but people at first glance people generally do not. Then you try to explain to them how Federation works and their eyes gloss over.
I can grab anyone of basically any age and drop them on a computer/phone to sign up for Facebook for the first time and they will figure it out in seconds. Contrast that with joining Pixelfed which doesn’t even let people join the biggest instance anymore. I don’t disagree with their decision at all but the first thing people would likely tap just doesn’t let them move forward. Then a lot of the largest instances don’t carry much if any English content. Do you not see how that’s an issue for adoption?
Imagine trying to join Facebook and when you get through the multi step process everything’s in German, a mistake you made because the largest instance won’t let you in and you don’t understand instances in the first place. For most people that’s an issue.
What I’m trying to say is that every social network has it’s quirks that you just need to learn. The willingness to learn also depends on how attractive the platform is. With time i see no reason for lemmy to not grow like reddit did.
If you just google “Lemmy” one of the first results is https://join-lemmy.org/ where you are directed to an instance that suits you. Far from perfect but Lemmy is still young.
People probably don’t even really need to understand federation. They just need sane defaults to get started and work from there.
And what I’m trying to say is that the big dogs don’t have quirks. They are intuitive to the point where 98% of people can figure them out in seconds the moment they look at them. They have spent billions of dollars over decades learning how to create as little friction as possible to get new users onto their platforms.
There isn’t a single fediverse platform that is as easy to onboard new users to as Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, etc. There’s just no comparison.
Edit: I also forgot to mention earlier: some instances have defederated from major ones and vice versa. What instance you choose can matter an awful lot. Additionally, people are going to be confused when they see multiple variants of the same communities on different instances (e.g. News)